Back by popular demand from last year’s Conference, Turner ran through the familiar story of the dire state of the UK economy but, in his inimitable style laced with regular injections of black humour, the analysis was fresh and admirably concise.
His judgement on the economy: the recession is over and has been for some time. Growth will be sluggish but it will be growth (+1.4% for 2010). Low interest rates will also be maintained.
Traditionally, basis of a healthy economy are 2% inflation, 2.5% GDP growth and 4% interest rates. At the moment, the UK has higher inflation, lower growth and much lower interest rates than the ideal; moreover, all the policy levers available to government and the central bank have been pulled to stave off recession.
The risks to the recovery are greater than previous recessions because of the length of time it will take to pay off the public deficit and the prospect of a weakening European market.
But on balance, Turner said he was optimistic for the future.
Judie Lannon, editor of The Marketing Society’s quarterly journal, Market Leader, was reporting on the Annual Conference for Warc.